Task:Finance Translation,edit and proofreading
Selected Source Languages:English.Inflation is yesterday’s battle…slowing growth is tomorrow’s
The risk here is that many economic data releases are backward looking. That is to say that they paint a picture of the state of the economy at some point in the past. This means that if the lagged effect of monetary policy is not fully understood there is a danger that the Fed will overshoot on interest rates to the upside and manufacture a more severe slowdown than they had aimed for. Ironically, the vigilantes of the financial markets, by questioning Bernanke’s anti-inflation credentials, may themselves force him to err on the side of caution and consequently overshoot.
The aim of the Fed at this point is to engineer a ‘soft landing’ whereby the threat of escalating inflation has been eliminated and economic growth reverts to trend levels but remains healthily positive, the so called ‘goldilocks economy’. With growth already showing signs of slowing and the long-run deflationary theme of globalisation still intact, it is quite possible that this balancing act can be realised. We will probably have the answer in the next few months, but until we do, it could be a bumpy ride.
One likely feature of the second half of the year is that markets will gradually begin to focus more towards the prospects for, and magnitude of, an economic slowdown and away from the specter of inflation.
If we accept the premise that the Fed will do all that’s necessary to fight inflation, then we must also accept the inevitability of a slow down in economic growth Some think that the Fed might be behind the curve on inflation, whereas the reality of the situation is that markets could well be behind the curve on slowing growth. Markets today are still priced for strong growth and their principal concern is inflation / interest rates. The markets of tomorrow may well have to price in a considerably slower growth model, which is yet another reason to start taking risk off the table.
Target Deliverable Languages:HK Chinese.通貨膨脹為昨日之戰……增長放緩為明日之鬥
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